英國(guó)計(jì)劃投資200億美元激勵(lì)儲(chǔ)能發(fā)展，但仍困難重重

未來(lái)幾年，英國(guó)的電池存儲(chǔ)市場(chǎng)將呈指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)，而要達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)，還需要解決兩大問(wèn)題：電網(wǎng)連接問(wèn)題和供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題。而這些問(wèn)題的解決不僅需要政府政策的支持，還需要擴(kuò)大本地的電池產(chǎn)能。

英國(guó)的儲(chǔ)能容量到2030年可能增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)10倍，但只有在解決電網(wǎng)連接和供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題的情況下才能實(shí)現(xiàn)。

UK storage capacity could grow more than tenfold by 2030 – but only if grid connection and supply chain challenges are addressed.

到2030年，可能會(huì)在英國(guó)投資200億美元的儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)。?

$20 billion could be invested in UK storage by 2030.

但電網(wǎng)連接問(wèn)題導(dǎo)致了多年的延誤。

But grid connection problems causing years of delays.

英國(guó)必須投資國(guó)內(nèi)電池制造產(chǎn)能。

But grid connection problems causing years of delaysUK must invest in domestic battery manufacturing capacity.

市場(chǎng)對(duì)于英國(guó)電池儲(chǔ)存市場(chǎng)的前景持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。Rystad Energy最近進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)分析得出的結(jié)論是，到2030年，英國(guó)的電池儲(chǔ)存容量將從目前的2.1GW增加到約24GW。大量的資本將被投入到該行業(yè)，預(yù)計(jì)到本十年末，儲(chǔ)能電池系統(tǒng)將吸引高達(dá)200億美元的投資，這意味著英國(guó)將擁有足夠的能源儲(chǔ)備，可以為1800萬(wàn)戶(hù)家庭提供一年的電力能源。

It’s easy to get excited about the prospects for the UK battery storage market. A recent analysis conducted by Rystad Energy concluded that battery storage capacity in the UK will increase from the current level of 2.1GW to around 24GW by 2030. Massive amounts of capital are set to be ploughed into the sector, with utility-scale battery systems expected to attract investments of up to $20 billion by the end of the decade. This will mean the UK has sufficient combined energy reserves to power 18 million homes for a year, the Rystad Energy study showed.

這將使英國(guó)成為全球儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)跑者之一。如果產(chǎn)能水平達(dá)到預(yù)期，這意味著英國(guó)將占全球所有裝機(jī)容量的近9%，英國(guó)將排在全球儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)的第四位，僅次于中國(guó)、美國(guó)和德國(guó)。

It's a trajectory that would put the UK among the pacesetters in the global energy storage market. If the projected level of capacity is indeed attained, it will mean that the UK will account for 9% of all global capacity additions and will be ranked fourth by capacity behind China, the US and Germany.

坦白地講，英國(guó)政府已經(jīng)為蓬勃發(fā)展的儲(chǔ)能業(yè)提供了政策支持。能源部專(zhuān)家認(rèn)為，政府制定了雄心勃勃的儲(chǔ)能需求目標(biāo)，該目標(biāo)是到2030年實(shí)現(xiàn)30GW的容量，包括電池、飛輪、抽水蓄能和空氣儲(chǔ)能。與此同時(shí)，規(guī)劃部的改革舉措也為英國(guó)儲(chǔ)能業(yè)提供了諸多便利。2020年，政府制定了新的法規(guī)，目的是簡(jiǎn)化儲(chǔ)能在規(guī)劃建設(shè)中的處理流程。具體的，將除了抽水蓄能之外的電力儲(chǔ)能從英格蘭和威爾士的全國(guó)重要基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)（NSIP）體制中移除，并取消了《1989年電力法》第36條獲得審批的規(guī)定。

In fairness, the UK government has laid some of the foundations for a flourishing energy storage industry. Energy sector experts have acknowledged that the government’s 30GW energy storage requirement target – including batteries, flywheel, pumped hydro and liquid air energy storage – for 2030 is ambitious. Meanwhile, reforms to the planning system are also viewed as having provided a shot in the arm for the UK’s storage industry. In 2020 new laws were introduced thatsimplified the treatment of storage under the planning system. Specifically, the changes to the law removed electricity storage (except pumped hydro) from the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIP) regime in England and Wales and also removed the requirement for consent under s.36 of the Electricity Act 1989.

實(shí)際上，這意味著電力儲(chǔ)能項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)超過(guò)50 MW（英格蘭）和350 MW（威爾士），就可以申請(qǐng)普通的規(guī)劃許可證，而不必向國(guó)務(wù)卿申請(qǐng)開(kāi)發(fā)許可令（DCO），這將減少NSIP制度對(duì)項(xiàng)目造成額外的成本和時(shí)間延誤。

In effect, this meant that developers of electricity storage projects above 50MW in England and 350MW in Wales would be able to apply for ordinary planning permission for such schemes instead of having to apply to the Secretary of State for a development consent order (DCO). The rationale for the changes was that it would reduce the extra cost and time delays that the NSIP regime can often bring.

儲(chǔ)能部署增加的困局Barriers to increased deployment of storage

因此，在英國(guó)，常規(guī)儲(chǔ)能項(xiàng)目的規(guī)模將大幅增加。在政策規(guī)劃的引導(dǎo)下，那些非常具有挑戰(zhàn)性的項(xiàng)目也將得以實(shí)施，例如單項(xiàng)容量超過(guò)1 GW的儲(chǔ)能項(xiàng)目。據(jù)Rystad Energy介紹，如此規(guī)模的儲(chǔ)能電池項(xiàng)目可能需要多達(dá)55英畝的土地，相當(dāng)于40多個(gè)足球場(chǎng)地。

As a result, the usual size of battery energy storage projects in the UK is expected to increase significantly. We should see some individual projects weighing in at a hefty 1GW – projects of this scale would have been much more challenging from a planning perspective if the legal changes hadn’t been made. As Rystad Energy pointed out, a battery project of this scale could require as much as 55 acres of land, equivalent to more than 40 football fields.

但我們還需警惕過(guò)于樂(lè)觀的市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)存的一些障礙可能會(huì)成為儲(chǔ)能行業(yè)迅猛發(fā)展的絆腳石。

But the storage community needs to guard against excessive bullishness as there are significant obstacles that could stop the storage sector from fulfilling its undoubted potential.

接下來(lái)依次分析：

Let’s take these in turn:

1.并網(wǎng)問(wèn)題

1.Grid connection problems

儲(chǔ)能項(xiàng)目的并網(wǎng)連接問(wèn)題可能需要數(shù)年、甚至超十年才能解決。能源咨詢(xún)公司Regen的首席執(zhí)行官M(fèi)erlin Hyman最近在下議院商業(yè)、能源和工業(yè)戰(zhàn)略委員會(huì)（BEIS委員會(huì)）的口頭聽(tīng)證會(huì)上表示，并網(wǎng)連接問(wèn)題是所有業(yè)內(nèi)人士關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。他補(bǔ)充道：“在全國(guó)大部分地區(qū)，你申請(qǐng)新的太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電站、電池、氫電解槽和大型電動(dòng)汽車(chē)充電站，你將在15年后獲得并網(wǎng)許可。而我們的（儲(chǔ)能）目標(biāo)比那還要早，這對(duì)整個(gè)能源轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃來(lái)說(shuō)顯然是一個(gè)巨大的問(wèn)題?！痹谕宦?tīng)證會(huì)上，Centrica氫能公司負(fù)責(zé)人Will Mezzullo簡(jiǎn)潔的概況了現(xiàn)狀：“目前，并網(wǎng)是受到嚴(yán)格限制的。他們根本不可能在電池系統(tǒng)或新能源系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)中投入更多?！?/p>

Securing a grid connection for an energy storage project can take years, sometimes even more than a decade. Merlin Hyman, chief executive of energy advisory business Regen, recentlytold a House of Commons Business Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee oral evidence hearingthat grid connection was the key issue that everyone in the clean energy sector wanted to talk about. He added: “If you apply with a new solar farm, battery, hydrogen electrolyser, large-scale EV charger in most parts of the country, you will get a connection date in 15 years’ plus time. Given our [energy storage] targets are rather earlier than that, that is clearly a huge problem now for the whole net zero transition.” At the same hearing, Will Mezzullo, head of hydrogen at Centrica, summed it up succinctly: “At the moment, the grid is absolutely constrained. They physically can put hardly any more gridscale batteries or renewables on the network.”

2.供應(yīng)鏈挑戰(zhàn)仍然存在

2.Supply chain challenges persist

英國(guó)儲(chǔ)能業(yè)發(fā)展受制于不成熟的供應(yīng)鏈以及過(guò)度依賴(lài)海外生產(chǎn)。大多數(shù)英國(guó)電池制造商只生產(chǎn)比鋰離子電池成本更低的鈉離子電池。為了真正從低成本的鈉離子電池中獲益，英國(guó)必須加強(qiáng)制造能力。他們的理由是，這對(duì)于英國(guó)通過(guò)該方式減少碳排放以實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候目標(biāo)至關(guān)重要。從國(guó)內(nèi)供應(yīng)商采購(gòu)電池產(chǎn)品，而不是從中國(guó)進(jìn)口，可以最大限度地減少二氧化碳排放。

The advancement of the UK energy storage industry is being held up by an immature supply chain with an over-reliance on overseas production lines. This means that most UK manufacturers produce sodium-ion cells – which can be produced at a lower cost than, say, lithium-ion batteries – only in low volumes. To truly benefit from the much lower environmental cost of sodium-ion cells, the UK must build out manufacturing capacity onshore. The argument is thatthis is essential to truly fulfil climate goals by reducing the carbon footprint of the industry and that of the UK. Sourcing cell products from domestic suppliers, as opposed to importing from China, minimises CO2 emissions.

3.丞待長(zhǎng)時(shí)儲(chǔ)能發(fā)展的政策框架

3.No policy framework for long duration storage

要充分利用儲(chǔ)能，包括抽水蓄能，英國(guó)政府需要制定長(zhǎng)時(shí)儲(chǔ)能政策框架。長(zhǎng)時(shí)儲(chǔ)能技術(shù)理事會(huì)強(qiáng)調(diào)”政策前景的不確定性”是長(zhǎng)時(shí)儲(chǔ)能商業(yè)化發(fā)展的主要障礙之一。推動(dòng)長(zhǎng)時(shí)儲(chǔ)能發(fā)展的政策包括：制定容量目標(biāo)和采購(gòu)目標(biāo)，將儲(chǔ)能納入電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃工作；提高行業(yè)收入并提供長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的創(chuàng)收機(jī)制，如差價(jià)合約、上下限、能源證書(shū)、購(gòu)電協(xié)議和基礎(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)監(jiān)管政策；公私合作、補(bǔ)助和激勵(lì)措施；以及有針對(duì)性的招標(biāo)，以加快早期項(xiàng)目及其所需的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)。

Developing a policy framework for long duration storage – including pumped hydro – is viewed as crucial if the UK is to fully realise the potential of energy storage. The Long Duration Energy Storage Council has highlighted “uncertainty in the policy landscape” as one of thekey barriers to the greater commercialisation of long duration storage. Better policy support for long duration storage would include: the setting of storage capacity targets and procurement targets, as well as the incorporation of energy storage into grid planning efforts; mechanisms that both enhance revenues and provide long-term revenue certainty such as contracts for difference, caps & floors, hourly energy attribute certificates, power purchase agreements, and the regulated asset base; public-private partnerships, grants and incentives; and targeted tenders to accelerate early projects and their required infrastructure.

解決了這些障礙，未來(lái)英國(guó)的儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)前景將十分廣闊。如前所述，英國(guó)政府表示，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年，國(guó)家需要至少30GW的“包括電力存儲(chǔ)在內(nèi)的低碳彈性資產(chǎn)”，以維持能源安全、有效地整合高水平的可再生能源發(fā)電。如果上述障礙被消除，英國(guó)不僅可以達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)，而且有可能超越它。

Address the challenges, and the future for UK battery storage is very bright. As already highlighted, the UK government has said it anticipates that at least 30GW of “l(fā)ow carbon flexible assets, which includes electricity storage”, may be needed by 2030 tomaintain energy security and cost-effectively integrate high levels of renewable generation. If the aforementioned obstacles are removed, there is every chance that the UKwill not only reach this target, but surpass it.